AI Disruption Timeline (2023-2032)
Company Legend
Anthropic
OpenAI
Google
Other
Stage 1: Augmentation
Stage 2: Displacement
Stage 3: Acceleration
Stage 4: Cascade
Stage 5: Restructuring
Anthropic
OpenAI
Google
Other
AGI (estimated)
ASI (estimated)
You Are Here
Early displacement
Mass restructuring
Cascade bottom
Recovery begins
GPT-4 to Opus 4.6
in under 3 years — exponential capability growth
82% SWE-Bench
— Sonnet 5 reaches junior dev territory
Window to prepare closes here
— AGI transition begins